"If You Knew When and Where Market Tops & Bottoms Were Going To Occur, You Could Make a Fortune!"

Cycles are evident in all aspects of life. From the life cycle of a bug lasting days, to the cycle of planets lasting billions of years. The stock market ebs and flows in cycles, and those who take the time studying them avoid being caught off guard when "the bubble bursts."

market cycles

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Market Cycle Basics

There are 4 phases to every market cycle:

  1. Accumulation Phase
    Accumulation occurs when the "smart money" begins to buy into the market towards what will be the end of a bear market. Valuations are very attractive, and experienced traders are able to see through the "doom and gloom" to pick up quality investments at "cheap" prices.

  2. Markup Phase
    The mark up phase occurs after the market has stabilized and begins moving higher. Market technicians begin getting bullish, noticing the market is putting in higher lows and higher highs. Market sentiment improves and media coverage beings telling the worst is over. As the markup phase gains strength, greed begins taking over solid investing principles.

    As the markup phase becomes long in the tooth, the general public begins to believe anyone can profit in the market. Price to earnings rations surpass historic norms, and intelligent investing  is supplanted by greed. This is the time when the smart money begins preparations to pull out of the market. Prices make one last skyward move, known in technical analysis as a selling climax. Market sentiment would seem almost euphoric during this phase.

  3. Distribution Phase
    Sellers begin to dominate, noted by a mixed market sentiment. Prices tend to trend sideways, but the duration can be very to short or painfully long. The end of the distribution phase is marked by a clear reversal in market direction. Classic topping patterns such as double and triple tops, as well as head and shoulders top patterns, prevail during this phase.


  4. Mark Down Phase
    The fourth and final phase in the cycle is the most painful for those who still hold positions. Many hang on because their investment has fallen below what they paid for it, behaving like the pirate who falls overboard clutching a bar of gold, refusing to let go in the vain hope of being rescued. It is only when the market has plunged 50% or more that the laggards, many of whom bought during the distribution or early mark-down phase, give up or capitulate. Unfortunately, this is a buy signal for early innovators and a sign that a bottom is imminent. But alas, it is new investors who will buy the depreciated investment during the next accumulation phase and enjoy the next mark-up.

 

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