In the last State of The Dow this past Friday, 08/02/2008, I predicted the DOW would have a relief rally and test the 38.2% retracement level at 11724. Following todays FOMC minutes, the DOW proceeded to climb 331.62 points to 11615.77, only 16 cents off of the daily high.

I expect another up day for the market tomorrow, with the DOW following its recent trend of 2-3 up days before resuming its overall downward trend, and use any spike up as an opportunity to short / go long puts.

If the DOW manages to close above 12,000, it could signify the beginning of a trend reversal which we’ll monitor closely.

dow jones industrial average for august 5th, 2008
Click to enlarge

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